Analisis Prediksi Customer Churn pada Sektor E-Commerce Berdasarkan Perilaku Transaksi Menggunakan Pendekatan Machine Learning

Abstract

Because it directly impacts revenue, customer loyalty, and long-term business sustainability, customer churn is a critical issue for the e-commerce industry. High churn rates indicate that a business is unable to retain existing customers, which means it is more expensive to acquire new customers. Therefore, a precise analytical approach is needed to identify customer behavior patterns that are likely to churn. Using machine learning methods, this study analyzes and predicts customer churn. For this study, the E-Commerce Customer Churn 2025 dataset, obtained from Kaggle, was used. This dataset consists of 10,000 customer data and contains fifteen variables covering transaction behavior, customer characteristics, and churn status. Data preprocessing, descriptive analysis, exploratory data analysis (EDA), and classification model development using Logistic Regression and Random Forest algorithms were part of the research project. Model evaluation was conducted using a Confusion Matrix and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve to evaluate the model's accuracy and ability to distinguish between churned and non-churned customers. The results showed that the Random Forest model performed better than Logistic Regression, with an ROC-AUC of 1.00. Furthermore, feature importance analysis revealed that the days_since_last_purchase variable was the most dominant factor in predicting customer churn. These findings are expected to help e-commerce companies design more effective, data-driven customer retention strategies.